Digital Financial Inclusion, DeFi Capability, and AI Analytics in Payment Market Infrastructure: Implications for System Resilience and Performance

Digital payment and settlement markets operate as interconnected financial systems shaped by institutional, technological, and capability-based elements. This study examines how digital transformation and digital financial inclusion interact within this system to influence Sustainable Digital Payment and Settlement Market Performance (SDPSMP), with DeFi adoption capability acting as a structural translation mechanism and AI and big data analytics functioning as adaptive enablers. Integrating the Resource-Based View and Diffusion of Innovation, the study explains why technology diffusion does not consistently produce stable market-level outcomes. Cross-sectional data were collected from 422 professionals in Saudi financial institutions engaged in payment, settlement, and FinTech functions. A dual-stage SEM–ANN approach was employed, using PLS-SEM to test direct, mediating, and moderating effects and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to capture nonlinear predictive patterns. Results show that digital transformation and digital financial inclusion enhance DeFi adoption capability and directly improve SDPSMP. DeFi capability partially mediates both relationships. Analytics capability strengthens the effects of inclusion and DeFi capability on system performance but does not moderate the transformation–performance link. ANN findings identify analytics capability and financial inclusion as dominant predictors. The study advances understanding of digital payment markets as complex adaptive systems and provides evidence on how coordinated capability development supports long-term resilience and structural stability.