The Effects of Structural Shocks on Macroeconomic Fundamentals under Aggressive Monetary Policy: The Case of Turkey

This study aims to investigate the impact of aggressive monetary policy in terms of inflation on the effects of structural shocks over macroeconomic fundamentals in Turkey. For this purpose, we estimate the basic new Keynesian model by using the Bayesian method for the period of 2000Q1 to 2019Q1. Design/methodology/approach: We use the most recent quarterly dataset of the real gross domestic product index, consumer price index and short term interest rate for Turkey. The prior distribution of structural parameters and shock processes are determined according to the literature. Then, we estimate two different version of the basic new Keynesian model with six distinct chains of Metropolis-Hasting algorithm with each of 100000 draws. Finally, we examine the long term impact of aggressive monetary policy on the effects of structural shocks with the help of the unconditional variance decomposition. Besides, the short term and over time analysis are conducted via the conditional forecast error variance decompositions.