BMI, Mortality, and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Type 1 Diabetes: Findings Against an Obesity Paradox

OBJECTIVE Low weight has been associated with increased mortality risks in type 1 diabetes. We aimed to investigate the importance of weight and weight gain/loss in the Swedish population diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Patients with type 1 diabetes (n = 26,125; mean age 33.3 years; 45% women) registered in the Swedish National Diabetes Registry from 1998 to 2012 were followed from the first day of study entry. Cox regression was used to calculate risk of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD), major CVD events, hospitalizations for heart failure (HF), and total deaths. RESULTS Population mean BMI in patients with type 1 diabetes increased from 24.7 to 25.7 kg/m2 from 1998 to 2012. Over a median follow-up of 10.9 years, there were 1,031 deaths (33.2% from CVD), 1,460 major CVD events, and 580 hospitalizations for HF. After exclusion of smokers, patients with poor metabolic control, and patients with a short follow-up time, there was no increased risk for mortality in those with BMI 25 kg/m2, while BMI 25 kg/m2 was associated with a minor increase in risk of mortality, major CVD, and HF. In women, associations with BMI were largely absent. Weight gain implied an increased risk of mortality and HF, while weight loss was not associated with higher risk. CONCLUSIONS Risk of major CVD, HF, CVD death, and mortality increased with increasing BMI, with associations more apparent in men than in women. After exclusion of factors associated with reverse causality, there was no evidence of an obesity paradox.