Is delay equivalent to risk? A comparative study of intertemporal choice and risky choice in gain scenarios

Abstract Intertemporal choice and risky choice are fundamental aspects of decision-making, involving trade-offs between delay, risk, and monetary outcomes. This study explores the differences in preferences between intertemporal and risky choices when the potential gains are held constant. Through two behavioral experiments utilizing fixed monetary amounts and subjectively equivalent delay and risk levels, we assessed participants’ preferences. The results demonstrate a consistent preference for delayed, larger rewards (LL) over certainty immediate, smaller certain reward (CSS) and risky, larger rewards (UL). This preference suggests that individuals value the certainty of obtaining a larger reward in the future more than the uncertainty associated with taking risks, even when the potential gains are equal. Our findings highlight that the evaluation of delay in intertemporal choice and the assessment of risk in risky choice involve distinct psychological mechanisms, with individuals showing a stronger inclination towards intertemporal choices. These insights contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors influencing decision-making and provide a foundation for future research to further explore the underlying mechanisms and their implications for real-world applications.