Uncertainty-Aware Deep Learning Classification of Adamantinomatous Craniopharyngioma from Preoperative MRI

Diagnosis of adamantinomatous craniopharyngioma (ACP) is predominantly determined through invasive pathological examination of a neurosurgical biopsy specimen. Clinical experts can distinguish ACP from Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) with an accuracy of 86%, and 9% of ACP cases are diagnosed this way. Classification using deep learning (DL) provides a solution to support a non-invasive diagnosis of ACP through neuroimaging, but it is still limited in implementation, a major reason being the lack of predictive uncertainty representation. We trained and tested a DL classifier on preoperative MRI from 86 suprasellar tumor patients across multiple institutions. We then applied a Bayesian DL approach to calibrate our previously published ACP classifier, extending beyond point-estimate predictions to predictive distributions. Our original classifier outperforms random forest and XGBoost models in classifying ACP. The calibrated classifier underperformed our previously published results, indicating that the original model was overfit. Mean values of the predictive distributions were not informative regarding model uncertainty. However, the variance of predictive distributions was indicative of predictive uncertainty. We developed an algorithm to incorporate predicted values and the associated uncertainty to create a classification abstention mechanism. Our model accuracy improved from 80.8% to 95.5%, with a 34.2% abstention rate. We demonstrated that calibration of DL models can be used to estimate predictive uncertainty, which may enable clinical translation of artificial intelligence to support non-invasive diagnosis of brain tumors in the future.