Effects of climate change and variability on livestock production in Gambella and Lare districts of agro-pastoral communities, southwest Ethiopia

Abstract Climate change and variability threaten livestock-based livelihoods in Ethiopia’s agro-pastoral systems. This study examined the effects of climate change on livestock production in Gambella and Lare districts of southwestern Ethiopia. The study was based on multi-stage sampling techniques to select the study area and 264 sample household respondents. Data were collected through HH surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Chi-square tests were also used to compare the differences between the two districts. This study integrated a trend analysis of historical meteorological data (1983–2019) with socio-economic surveys and focus group discussions. Mann–Kendall's test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to detect the trend and magnitude of changes, respectively. The results revealed a statistically significant increasing trend in annual rainfall (+ 0.261 mm per year) alongside high inter-annual variability in Gambella district, potentially linked to long-term change or shifts in seasonal weather patterns; and a significant increasing trend of maximum temperature (+ 0.021 °C per year) was observed in Lare district, indicating a clear warming in daytime temperatures. Respondents identified drought, flood, rainfall variability, and bush encroachment as major climate hazards. These changes affect livestock through feed shortages, reduced reproductive performance, increased disease incidence, and direct productivity losses (reduced milk yield, weight loss, and higher mortality). The study concluded that climate change and variability are the primary drivers of livestock vulnerability in agro-pastoral communities. Integrating climate-smart practices, including improved forage cultivation, community-based early warning systems, and enhanced veterinary services into regional planning is recommended to build resilience.