The early explanatory power of NDVI in crop yield modelling

The objective of this paper is to study, on a weekly basis, the explanatory power of one satellite‐based measurement, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), for wheat yield modelling in 40 census agricultural regions (CAR) in the Canadian Prairies during the whole growing season using 16 years of NOAA AVHRR satellite data (between 1987 and 2002). We also explore the relative value of NDVI compared with a land‐based measurement, the Cumulative Moisture Index (CMI). By developing a series of weekly wheat yield models over the course of the growing season, we are able to determine the accuracy of different models. Our findings indicate that NDVI possesses explanatory power 4 weeks earlier in the season than CMI.