Global Risk Assessment Of The Effect Of Climate Change On Selected Causes Of Death In 2030s And 2050s

Introduction. Climate change will affect future global health and potentially increase global inequalities in environment and health. We report the findings of a global assessment of the impact of climate change on selected mortality outcomes undertaken for the World Health Organization. Methods Global climate-health models were developed for: heat-related mortality, mortality from coastal flooding, diarrhoeal disease mortality in children, malaria mortality, dengue mortality, and undernutrition. Future cause-specific mortality in 2030 and 2050 (in the absence of climate change) was estimated using regression methods. Future climate change was characterized by a medium-high emissions scenario (A1b) run through three climate models. The counterfactual was a future world with population growth and economic development but with baseline (1961–1990) climate. The annual burden of mortality due to climate change was estimated for 21 world regions. Results Annual additional deaths due to climate change in 2030 include: 38,000 heat deaths, 48,000 deaths from diarrhoea, 60,000 malaria deaths, and 95,000 due to childhood undernutrition. WHO projects a dramatic decline in child mortality which is reflected in declining climate change impacts between 2030 and 2050. In 2050, deaths related to heat are projected to increase. Impacts are greatest under a low economic growth scenario. By 2050, impacts of climate change on mortality are projected to be greatest in south Asia. Conclusions. Climate change is projected to have substantial adverse impacts on future mortality, even considering only a subset of expected health effects and under optimistic scenarios of socioeconomic development and adaptation. The strong effect of socioeconomic development on the projections of future risks emphasizes the need to ensure that economic growth, climate policies and health programmes particularly benefit the poorest and most vulnerable populations.