An Alternative to the One-Child Policy in China

During the 1970s Chinas fertility fell at an extraordinarily rapid pace not previously experienced by any other population over a comparable span of time. However the policies that helped to produce this fertility decline the later-longer-fewer and the 1 child policies have had a number of undesirable consequences foremost among them the social and economic costs imposed in Chinas families. This paper considers problems with and alternative to Chinas birth limitation programs. Accepting as given the Chinese governments goal of stabilizing the population at 1.2 billion by the year 2000 the paper 1st reviews the likely potential demographic and socioeconomic effects of current and past policies. It then explores policy alternatives mostly variants of a stop-at-2 rule and its benefits compared with the current 1-child policy. The overall aim is to demonstrate that a 2-child policy if accompained by delayed childbearing can be as effective as the current 1-child policy in achieving Chinas macrodemographic goals. More specifically it is possible to limit population size to less than 1.2 billion in 2000 under a strictly enforced stop-at-2 policy with a minimum age at 1st birth of as low as 25 years. In the long run there are only minor differences between a 1-child policy and a stop-at-2 policy with a minimum age at 1st birth of 27 years. While the 2-child policy would be as effective in limiting population size as the 1-child policy it would be easier to implement and would have less detrimental consequences for the society and economy. (Authors modified)