Dwarf Galaxy Number Counts within 25 Mpc: Predictions from Local Group Analogs in TNG50

Abstract The modern generation of wide-field galaxy surveys, such as LSST, Euclid, and Roman, will enable studies of dwarf galaxies (10 6 ≤ M * / M ⊙ ≤ 10 9 ) beyond the Local Group (LG) in unprecedented detail. Improved theoretical understanding of this population is necessary to guide these observations, since predictions in this regime are generally limited to specific environments like the LG. We present predictions for the population of dwarf galaxies from the TNG50 run of the IllustrisTNG suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations, focusing on the environments within 1 < D /Mpc < 25 of LG analogs at z = 0. In the simulated sample, there are ∼1000 and ∼12,000 dwarf galaxies within 10 and 25 Mpc, respectively. We compare our results with the 50 Mpc Galaxy Catalog and estimate that current observations are highly incomplete at low masses: for 10 6 ≤ M * / M ⊙ ≤ 10 7 (−13 ≲ M r ≲ −10), we find completeness fractions of ∼23% within 10 Mpc and ∼4% within 25 Mpc. The simulated galaxies below the completeness limits of the observations exist in a range of environments, with notable populations of field dwarfs at all distances and satellites around centrals with masses 10 8 ≲ M * / M ⊙ ≲ 10 11 within 10–25 Mpc. We find that there are ∼8 times more quiescent dwarf galaxies in the TNG50 sample than are currently cataloged. Our results suggest that upcoming observations should uncover a substantial population of dwarf galaxies, and that ≳15% of these will be red, currently quenched galaxies in the field.