Climate aridification and intensified human interference undermined water storage in the Lower Yellow River region

• Water challenges in the Lower Yellow River region were investigated. • A water resources system analysis framework was adopted. • Groundwater depletion in the region was exacerbated after 2012. • Imbalanced water allocation reduced the resilience of the system. • Adaptive strategies are important for sustainable water resources management. Understanding the relationships between human activities and hydrological processes is critical for sustainable water resources management, especially under the threat of increasing climate extremes. China’s Lower Yellow River (LYR) region is one of the world’s most water-scarce and human-impacted areas, yet comprehensive information on its water resources is lacking. This study adopted a water resources system (WRS) analytical framework to investigate the water crisis facing the region. The findings reveal that over the last decade, the system’s resilience has been undermined by the combined impacts of climate aridification and intensified human interference. Specifically, a delicate balance between natural groundwater depletion and irrigation replenishment has been disrupted by a series of drought events since 2012. Increased groundwater extraction during droughts, coupled with an imbalanced allocation of surface water resources, has led to a persistent decline in water storage that has continued even after the droughts have ended. To mitigate future climate risks in the LYR, we recommend implementing more adaptive strategies, such as flexible water regulation policies and combined surface-groundwater management. Lessons from the LYR have important implications for other regions facing water resource challenges.