Impact of low physical activity on cardiovascular disease across regions and demographic groups: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death globally, with low physical activity (LPA) as a significant modifiable risk factor. The prevalence of LPA remains high, necessitating a comprehensive assessment of its impact on CVD. METHODS AND RESULTS: We applied Joinpoint regression to assess trends in deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and employed autoregressive integrated moving average models to project future LPA-related burdens. From 1990 to 2021, CVD-related deaths due to LPA rose from 218 938 to 371 736 globally, with the most significant increases in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. DALYs surged from 4.47 million to 7.29 million. Although age-standardized death rates showed a slight decline in high-income countries (-2.27% EAPC), lower-income regions experienced a steady rise. YLDs grew from 344 680 to 725 181, while YLLs increased from 4.13 million to 6.57 million, with older adults (75+ years) carrying the highest burden. CONCLUSION: The growing burden of CVD linked to LPA highlights the urgent need for interventions, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, to reduce future risks and improve public health outcomes.