Has Transport Infrastructure Promoted Regional Economic Growth?— With an Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effects of Transport Infrastructure

在综合考虑多维要素对中国区域经济增长的协同作用的基础上, 构建交通基础 设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出模型, 利用1993-2009年的中国省级面板数据和空间 计量经济学的研究方法, 实证分析得出以下主要结论。 (1) 中国交通基础设施对区 域经济增长的产出弹性值合计约0.05-0.07, 表明其对中国区域经济增长具有重要的作 用。 (2) 中国交通基础设施对区域经济增长的空间溢出效应非常显著, 若不考虑空间 溢出效应, 会高估交通基础设施对区域经济增长的作用。 (3) 外地交通基础设施对本 地经济增长表现为以正的空间溢出效应为主, 但是也有空间负溢出的证据。 (4) 在影 响区域经济增长的多维要素中, 劳动力与其他公共部门资本存量对中国区域经济弹性 的贡献仍然较大, 新经济增长因素与新经济地理因素的作用也不容忽视。 关键词: 交通基础设施 空间溢出 区域经济增长 空间计量模型 Taking full account of the synergistic effects of multidimensional factors on regional economic growth in China, this paper constructs a model of the spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure on regional economic growth. Using provincial panel data from 1993 to 2009 and employing spatial econometric techniques, our empirical analysis comes to the following conclusions. (1) The total output elasticity of transport infrastructure for regional economic growth varies between 0.05 and 0.07, indicating its important role in such growth. (2) Transport infrastructure has very clear spatial spillover effects on regional economic growth; its role in regional economic growth will be overestimated if these are neglected. (3) For a specific region, transport infrastructure in other regions has mainly positive spillover effects on economic growth, but there is also evidence of negative spillover effects. (4) Among multidimensional factors contributing to regional economic growth, labor plus capital stock from other parts of the public sector make the greatest contribution to regional economic growth in China, followed by the new economic growth factors and new economic geography.