The impact of electric vehicles on the future European electricity system – A scenario analysis

The future transformation of the European electricity system will be strongly influenced by both an ongoing integration of variable renewable energy sources (VREs) and an increased proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs). This combination will cause considerable uncertainty, especially since EV diffusion may greatly vary regarding both the spatio-temporal penetration pattern and the achievable flexibility level. Notably, power plant investment in the long run and dispatch in the short run will be affected. Hence, this paper assesses the impact of EV penetration on the integration of VREs and the costs of CO2 emission reduction as well as the necessary investments in controllable plant capacities under the consideration of frequency reserve and backup capacity requirements. Applying an extended European energy system model, we found that EVs with a high flexibility level may contribute tremendously to improved VRE integration, alleviating the number of necessary VRE investments to achieve emission-reduction goals. Simultaneously, overall system costs are reduced even though necessary investments in controllable plants, ensuring the abovementioned system stability needs, significantly increase. Policy makers should hence ensure sufficient incentives to both exploit the EVs’ potential and safeguard corresponding investments in controllable plants, which need to remain attractive even though full-load hours are decreasing.