Depopulation, immigration, and gender dynamics: a case study of a long-term evaluation

This article examines the long-term effects of a local public repopulation policy based on the attraction of international immigrants, implemented in the rural municipality of Aguaviva (Teruel, Spain) since 2000. Using a quantitative, longitudinal, and comparative research design that combines a case study with quasi-counterfactual comparative approach (supported by Synthetic Control Method and Difference-in-Differences), the study analyzes demographic change over a 20-year period (2000-2020) and compares Aguaviva's trajectory with that of 663 rural municipalities in Aragón, grouped by population size and the presence or absence of public intervention. The findings suggest that although the policy was associated with a significant population increase in the medium term, its effects appeared to diminish in the long run. After two decades, Aguaviva's demographic trend shows a tendency to converge with that of municipalities without repopulation policies, reflecting the challenges of immigration-centered repopulation strategies. The analysis also reveals a substantial decline in the foreign population and highlights gender-differentiated dynamics, with women showing a greater tendency to remain in the locality, suggesting unintended policy effects. From the perspective of new institutionalism in sociology, this article emphasizes the importance of longitudinal evaluation and the incorporation of a gender perspective in the design and assessment of public policies aimed at addressing rural depopulation.