Exploring Potential Visitor Response to Climate-Induced Environmental Changes in Canada's Rocky Mountain National Parks

The scientific community and park professionals recognize that climate change could have a substantial impact on the natural landscape of mountain parks worldwide, with important implications for conservation policy and park planning. Little is known however about how tourists may respond to these projected environmental changes. To explore this question in the context of Canada's Rocky Mountain national parks, a visitor survey was administered ( n = 809) in two national parks: Banff and Waterton Lakes. The environmental change scenarios constructed for the early and mid-decades of the 21st century were found to have minimal influence on intention to visit. The environmental change scenario for the latter decades, under a high emission climate change scenario, was found to have a negative effect on intention to visit, as 36% of respondents indicated they would visit the parks less often and 25% not at all. Visitors most likely to be negatively affected by climate-induced environmental change were nature-based tourists from overseas, motivated by the opportunity to view mountain landscapes and wildlife. The hitherto largely overlooked conceptual and methodological challenges of understanding how tourists may respond to multidecadal environmental changes induced by global climate change in any tourism setting is also discussed.