The progression of cardiometabolic disease: Validation of a new cardiometabolic disease staging system applicable to obesity

OBJECTIVE: To validate a Cardiometabolic Disease Staging (CMDS) system for assigning risk level for diabetes, and all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. DESIGN AND METHODS: Two large national cohorts, CARDIA and NHANES III, were used to validate CMDS. CMDS: Stage 0: metabolically healthy; Stage 1: one or two metabolic syndrome risk factors other than impaired fasting glucose (IFG); Stage 2: IFG or impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or metabolic syndrome (without IFG); Stage 3: two of three (IFG, IGT, and/or metabolic syndrome); and Stage 4: type 2 diabetes mellitus/CVD. RESULTS: In the CARDIA study, compared with Stage 0 metabolically healthy subjects, adjusted risk for diabetes exponentially increased from Stage 1 hazard ratio (HR) 2.83, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.76-4.55, to Stage 2 (HR 8.06, 95% CI 4.91-13.2), to Stage 3 (HR 23.5, 95% CI 13.7-40.1) (P for trend <0.001). In NHANES III, both cumulative incidence and multivariable adjusted HRs markedly increased for both all-cause and CVD mortality with advancement of the risk stage from Stages 0 to 4. Adjustment for body mass index (BMI) minimally affected the risks for diabetes and all-cause/CVD mortality using CMDS. CONCLUSION: CMDS can discriminate a wide range of risk for diabetes, CVD mortality, and all-cause mortality independent of BMI, and should be studied as a risk assessment tool to guide interventions that prevent and treat cardiometabolic disease.