Neglected Impacts and Modeling Uncertainties of Seismic Surveys on Fish and Fisheries: Knowledge Gaps and Research Needs

Offshore oil and gas exploration has long driven global economic growth, and marine seismic surveys (MSS) constitute the initial phase of these operations. Although much of the impact literature focuses on marine mammals and, to a lesser extent, sea turtles and birds, empirical understanding of how MSS may affect fish and fisheries remains limited, particularly in the South Atlantic, where large-scale assessments are virtually absent. Here, we address this gap using a two-decade spatiotemporal dataset encompassing approximately 800,000 km 2 of MSS along the Brazilian coast. We integrated seismic effort metrics with fishery catch data from the Sea Around Us database to derive a Seismic Sensitivity Index (SSI) representing the relative sensitivity of key exploited groups, including tunas, billfishes, sharks, and rays, across all Brazilian sedimentary basins. We implemented multiple SSI frameworks combining seismic pressure indicators (e.g., Sound Exposure Level, licensed survey area, ramp-up zones), catches-weighted fishery importance, environmental stochasticity, and estimates of fish–seismic overlap probability. These complementary approaches revealed marked spatial contrasts in relative sensitivity and potential exposure. Southern basins, where seismic activity has been most frequent and intense, consistently showed higher SSI values for tunas and billfishes, whereas sharks and rays exhibited elevated SSI values in northern basins. Given the scarcity of comprehensive empirical studies in the South Atlantic and the extensive footprint of seismic operations across Brazil’s continental shelf, our results provide the first large-scale, data-driven screening of potential sensitivity to MSS among ecologically and economically important fish groups. This framework offers a foundation for prioritizing future empirical research, guiding risk assessments, and informing the spatial management of seismic activities.