A recent significant increase in tropical cyclone-induced precipitation in the North China Plain

Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation exhibits strong regional dependence and arises from complex mechanisms. Here, our analysis of hourly data from 278 observational stations reveals a significant increasing trend in TC precipitation over the North China Plain from 1981 to 2024. The long-term increase is primarily driven by a remarkable surge in TC-induced precipitation amount since 2018. Specifically, the annual mean TC precipitation nearly quadrupled, rising from 23.62 mm during 1981–2017 to 90.76 mm in 2018–2024. A similar upward trend is also observed in TC-induced extreme precipitation, indicating that TCs contribute increasingly to the region’s total extreme precipitation. Mechanistically, the precipitation intensification results not from a slowdown in TC translation speed but rather from the significant elongation of individual TC tracks, which are characterized by a westward extension and deeper inland penetration. Such track alteration is attributed to an anomalous easterly steering flow linked to a mid-to-upper-level anticyclonic anomaly near Japan.