The value of decreasing the duration of the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection

Finding medications or vaccines that may decrease the infectious period of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) could potentially reduce transmission in the broader population. We developed a computational model of the U. S. simulating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the potential clinical and economic impact of reducing the infectious period duration. Simulation experiments found that reducing the average infectious period duration could avert a median of 442, 852 treating 25% of symptomatic cases, reducing by 0. 5 days, reproductive number (R0) 3. 5, and starting treatment when 15% of the population has been exposed to 44. 4 million SARS-CoV-2 cases (treating 75% of all infected cases, reducing by 3. 5 days, R0 2. 0). With R0 2. 5, reducing the average infectious period duration by 0. 5 days for 25% of symptomatic cases averted 1. 4 million cases and 99, 398 hospitalizations; increasing to 75% of symptomatic cases averted 2. 8 million cases. At 500/person, treating 25% of symptomatic cases saved 209. 5 billion (societal perspective). Further reducing the average infectious period duration by 3. 5 days averted 7. 4 million cases (treating 25% of symptomatic cases). Expanding treatment to 75% of all infected cases, including asymptomatic infections (R0 2. 5), averted 35. 9 million cases and 4 million hospitalizations, saving 48. 8 billion (societal perspective and starting treatment after 5% of the population has been exposed). Our study quantifies the potential effects of reducing the SARS-CoV-2 infectious period duration.