A Study on the Correlation Between Urbanization and Agricultural Economy Based on Efficiency Measurement and Quantile Regression: Evidence from China

The impact of urbanization on the agricultural economy has long attracted scholarly attention. Taking China as a case, this study investigates the relationship between urbanization and agricultural development under the dual progress of urbanization and the rural revitalization strategy. Based on panel data from 31 mainland provinces, this paper measures agricultural economic efficiency using the global slack-based measure (SBM) model and employs quantile regression to systematically analyze the influence of various urbanization factors across different levels of agricultural efficiency. A Tobit regression model is further adopted for robustness checks. The results show that representative urbanization factors, such as the proportion of urban population and the prevalence of higher education, exert significant negative impacts on agricultural efficiency, particularly in regions with higher efficiency levels. Freight volume has a significantly negative effect in regions with medium and low efficiency, while freight turnover negatively impacts medium- to high-efficiency areas. In contrast, improvements in healthcare services and digital infrastructure are found to consistently enhance agricultural efficiency. Although the corporatization of agriculture is often regarded as a key outcome of urbanization, its efficiency-improving effect is not statistically significant in most models and is mainly concentrated in high-efficiency regions. Overall, the improvement in China’s agricultural economic efficiency relies more on direct support from the rural revitalization strategy, while rapid urbanization has failed to bring substantial benefits and has even led to structural negative effects. These adverse outcomes may stem from the rapid occupation of suburban farmland, increased logistics costs due to the relocation of agricultural activities, and the ineffective absorption of surplus rural labor. This study highlights the need for future urbanization policies in China to pay greater attention to the coordinated development of the agricultural economy. The methods and findings of this research also provide reference value for other developing regions facing similar urbanization-agriculture dynamics.