Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Cultural Heritage Tourism: The Case of S pain

ABSTRACT This study examines how climatic and meteorological conditions influence cultural heritage tourism in Spain using a multi‐scalar analytical framework based on annual, quarterly, and monthly datasets spanning different temporal and spatial levels. Over the study period, the number of World Cultural Heritage Sites in Spain increased from 12 in 1995 to 46 in 2020, providing an important context for the expansion of cultural heritage tourism. Building on time‐series analysis, LOESS smoothing, Spearman correlation, ANOVA, and Random Forest modeling, the results show that climatic and meteorological conditions are key factors shaping the spatial and temporal variability of cultural heritage tourism in Spain. Regions such as Andalucía and Cataluña combine strong heritage visibility with comparatively favorable climatic conditions and therefore attract higher tourism flows, whereas inland regions such as Castilla y León, despite their rich heritage resources, show weaker tourism performance under less favorable climatic and geographic conditions. The results further indicate that high temperatures and other climate‐related stresses may increasingly constrain cultural heritage tourism, particularly in outdoor and summer settings, while milder periods may create opportunities for seasonal redistribution of tourism demand. Although short‐term external shocks such as the financial crisis and the COVID‐19 pandemic caused temporary interruptions in tourism flows, the central finding is that climatic and meteorological conditions remain essential for understanding the uneven geography and changing seasonality of cultural heritage tourism in Spain. These findings provide a basis for more climate‐sensitive and regionally differentiated tourism planning and heritage management.