Racial Rioting in the 1960S: An Event History Analysis of Local Conditions

Using S. Spilerman's data on the timing and locations of race riots from 1961 to 1968, the author uses event history analysis to investigate the effects of local conditions on city-level hazard rates of rioting. First, several structural strain and social-psychological arguments, which were the focus of Spilerman's original studies, are reexamined in light of event history analysis. Second, he reinterprets ethnic competition arguments recently used to explain a wide variety of collective violence, and apply these ideas to the 1960s' riots. Third, he tests two models of the diffusion of rioting. Like previous analyses, his findings fail to support structural strain theories. Contrary to previous analyses however, the size of the non-White population is not the singular predictor found for the 1960s'riot locations. Instead, his results support both competition and diffusion arguments