Social projection as a function of cognitive mechanisms: Two meta‐analytic integrations

Two meta‐analyses were conducted on the results of previous research examining two distinct species of social projection: under‐/overestimation of consensus, and false consensus. These meta‐analyses were guided by an interest in the relative contributions of cognitive mechanisms and motivational mechanisms to social projection. The following patterns were observed in these meta‐analyses: the majority significantly underestimates its own consensus; the minority significantly overestimates its own consensus; the minority's overestimation is substantially greater than the majority's underestimation; the majority's tendency to underestimate increases, and the minority's tendency to overestimate decreases, as actual consensus increases; estimates of consensus made before behavioural choices are generally larger; estimates of consensus are larger when the consensus estimation question asks for estimation of consensus for one's own group; false consensus effects are significant and of moderate magnitude; false consensus decreases as the difference in the relative size of the majority and the minority increases; false consensus is largest when estimates of consensus are made before choices; and false consensus is largest when the consensus estimation question asks for estimates of consensus for one's own group. Discussion considers the implications of these results for the relative contributions of cognition and motivation to social projection. I am quite sure that the average man is built just as I am; otherwise, I should not be making this revelation of my inside. Mark Twain (1908) Something About Repentance.