Exploring changes in river nitrogen export to the world's oceans

Anthropogenic disturbance of river nutrient loads and export to coastal marine systems is a major global problem affecting water quality and biodiversity. Nitrogen is the major nutrient in rivers. On the basis of projections for food production and wastewater effluents, the global river N flux to coastal marine systems is shown to increase by 13% in the coming 3 decades. While the river N flux will grow by about 10% in North America and Oceania and will decrease in Europe, a 27% increase is projected for developing countries, which is a continuation of the trend observed in the past decades. This is a consequence of increasing nitrogen inputs to surface water associated with urbanization, sanitation, development of sewerage systems, and lagging wastewater treatment, as well as increasing food production and associated inputs of N fertilizer, animal manure, atmospheric N deposition, and biological N fixation in agricultural systems. Growing river N loads will lead to increased incidence of problems associated with eutrophication in coastal seas.