Strategies for Predicting Whether a Citizen Will Vote and Estimation of Electoral Outcomes

This study reports on a new methodological technique for estimating turnout in preelection studies of voters and brings a new approach to the allocation of undecided voters. The estimation procedure utilizes a smaller number of predictors than past research, providing a more efficient method which can be used with telephone as well as personal interviews. A comparison of estimates based upon a likelihood index and probability weighting results in equivalent predictive power, and appropriate applications for each technique are discussed.