An Overview of Present and Future Emigration Dynamics in South Asia

The author presents preliminary findings on selected aspects of the dynamics which govern emigration from and within the South Asian region comprised of Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The paper attempts to identify some of the major reasons for observed migration flows and how the future may be envisaged especially in view of government programs, policies, and priorities. Contract labor migration is given special attention since it has become the predominant type of migration in the region. Sections consider a possible conceptual framework; measuring emigration pressure or potential; data and data problems; the volume of emigration since 1970; South Asian migrant workers; macro-level determinants of emigration; community, family, and individual factors; and sending country policies. The consequences of emigration are discussed in terms of the impacts upon the labor force and non-economic consequences. Observations for the future conclude the paper. Analysis of the dynamics of emigration from South Asia indicate an urgent need to improve data on various forms of emigration, that relevant officials in countries of origin have a longstanding concern about the exploitation of workers in sending as well as receiving countries, and the need to better understand the linkages between various factors relevant to the emigration process. An understanding of such linkages would allow for more realistic policies and planning for future emigration.