Adaptive Forecasting of Hourly Loads Based on Load Measurements and Weather Information

Emphasis is placed on devising a physically meaningful procedure for hourly load forecasting. It is proposed that accurate forecasting depends on the use of both weather information and historical patterns. In order to efficiently use this information the total load is decomposed into a nominal load, a residual load and a part which reflects the known changes in the load. The forecast is made by forecasting each component load separately. Alternative procedures based on this decomposition are developed and results from a test case study are presented.