Los puntos clave no están disponibles para este artículo en este momento.
The president's popularity rating is highly predictive of his vote share in a reelection bid, especially when popularity is assessed in June of that year. This June popularity-vote model predicts about as well as the Gallup final preelection poll, and a 50 percent approval rating will ensure reelection.
Lewis‐Beck et al. (Fri,) studied this question.