Air vs rail competition towards the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway project in China

China’s railway has launched an ambitious speed-up program, the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway project, which challenges the civil aviation industry aggressively. This paper studies the current air-rail competition pattern considering passenger throughput, transport time, ticket fare and economic growth, and furthermore, uses the Logit Model to forecast the future competition situation between civil aviation and railway along the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway areas. The study also offers proposals for civil aviation industry towards the challenges of the new railway project.