The challenges of forecasting under current conditions

The paper analyzes the forecasting issues under modern conditions using mathematical models, the development of which is the main specialization of the Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The author presents a comparative analysis of forecasting methods (by IMF and Central Bank) using mathematical tools. The bias of the providers of economic forecasts using these forecasts to manipulate public opinion is shown. Their inadequacy during periods of disturbances in economic systems is substantiated. The author proposes alternative methods for the analysis of economic systems. The fundamental importance of compensatory measures that help reduce the negative effect of sanctions and promote economic development is noted. The main task of Russian forecasters is to actively counter the aggressive information flow.