Health-Care Costs When the Population Changes

Health-care costs when the population changes. This paper uses a theoretical model of the complete economic-demographic system to investigate the impact of population change on the relative burden of health-care costs. The model is used in a number of computer simulation experiments under a variety of as- sumptions about the course of fertility and migration. Our analysis suggests that population changes can be expected to have a sub- stantial impact on the costs of health care in the longer term. However, it seems clear that large cost increases which occur within a decade or so must primarily reflect changes in the quality of services provided. Our analysis suggests also that changes in fertility rates are likely to be of much greater quantitative im- portance than are changes in migration rates.