Early prediction of persisting post‐concussion symptoms following mild and moderate head injuries

OBJECTIVES: King (1996) reported that a combination of emotional, organic and neuropsychological measures taken at 7-10 days following mild and moderate head injury may significantly help predict patients most likely to suffer persisting post-concussion symptoms (PCS) at three months post-injury. This study investigated a cross-validation sample (N = 57) to determine whether the results would be replicated for the early prediction of longer-term sufferers (i.e. those with persisting symptoms at 6 months post-injury). DESIGN: Multiple regression analyses were used in which scores on the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Impact of Event Scale, Short Orientation Memory and Concentration Test, Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire and Post-Traumatic Amnesia taken at 7-10 days post-injury were the independent measures. Scoring on the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire taken at 6 months post-injury was the dependent measure. METHODS: Sixty-six consecutive patients admitted to any trauma ward in Oxfordshire with a mild or moderate head injury were recruited from a largescale randomized controlled sample. The assessment measures were administered at 7-10 days post-injury and the Rivermead Post-Concussion Symptoms Questionnaire at 6 months post-injury. Nine patients were unable to be followed up, leaving an active sample of 57. RESULTS: The cross-validation data confirmed that a similar combination of measures to that found in the original study best predicted persisting PCS but that the strength of prediction diminished for the longer term prediction (i.e. 6 months post-injury). CONCLUSIONS: The Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, Impact of Even Scale and Post-Traumatic Amnesia in combination are recommended as useful prognostic screening instruments for predicting persisting PCS, but great caution is required if they are used to aid predictions beyond 3 months post-injury.