The impact of low-carbon city pilot policies on urban energy intensity

Urban energy intensity measures the energy required per unit of economic output and is closely linked to energy-related emissions that shape air quality and climate-related health risks. Using panel data from 273 prefecture-level Chinese cities (2006-2021), we estimate the causal impact of China's Low-Carbon City Pilot Scheme (LCCPS) on urban energy intensity. We apply a partially linear double/debiased machine learning framework with city and year fixed effects, enabling flexible adjustment for high-dimensional confounders. The LCCPS lowers urban energy intensity by about 0.11 units, and the result is robust to alternative specifications. Channel analyses suggest that pilot designation strengthens fiscal support intensity and stimulates enterprise green innovation, which together contribute to reduced energy intensity. Effects are strongest in large and coastal cities and in resource-scarce regions, but weaker in small and medium-sized cities, inland areas, and resource-rich regions. By reducing the energy required for economic activity, low-carbon pilots may also generate public-health co-benefits through cleaner urban environments.