The Demand for Major League Baseball: A Test of the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis

The relationship between attendance at major league baseball games and the uncertainty of the outcome of each game is examined. We use an a priori measure of uncertainty in estimating the attendance equation. The variable is developed from the betting lines for individual games and measures the probability of a home team victory during the 1988 major league baseball season. The results indicate that uncertainty of outcome is a significant determinant of attendance for major league baseball. In addition, the results are used to determine the probability of a home team victory at which attendance will be maximized.