The Evolution with Age of Probabilistic, Intuitively Based Misconceptions

The purpose of this research was to investigate the evolution, with age, of probabilistic, intuitively based misconceptions. We hypothesized, on the basis of previous research with infinity concepts, that these misconceptions would stabilize during the emergence of the formal operation period. The responses to probability problems of students in Grades 5, 7, 9, and 11 and of prospective teachers indicated, contrary to our hypothesis, that some misconceptions grew stronger with age, whereas others grew weaker. Only one misconception investigated was stable across ages. An attempt was made to find a theoretical explanation for this rather strange and complex situation.