Assessment of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

This paper reports on an assessment of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) issued by the Arkansas–Red Basin River Forecast Center during the period May–June 1995. Assessment procedures involved spatial statistical procedures applied to the QPFs and Stage III calibrated radar-rainfall fields, and overlays of these. The QPF estimates were broad regional estimates that corresponded reasonably well to actual storm characteristics over the region. Over smaller areas on the order of 10% of the region (∼9000 mi2) the character of actual storms departs significantly from the QPF. Embedded storm cells having high intensity rainfall were not well predicted by the QPF. There was indication that QPF skill increased with rainfall magnitude.