Migration Expectancy in the United States

Abstract Expectancy tables provide a means of determining the number of moves a person may be expected to make during his remaining lifetime. The calculation of migration expectancy is based on the same assumptions as a life table plus assumptions peculiar to migration. In using census data it is necessary to assume a maximum of one move per person and no moves where no change of residence is reported. Migration expectancy differs basically from life expectancy because migration is a recurrent type of event but a person can die only once. Illustrative migration expectancies for the United States show that a person born in 1958 had an expectancy of 12.99 moves to a different house and 4.17 moves to a different county during his remaining lifetime. A person at age 20 could expect to move to a different house 9.26 times during the rest of his life. Additional expectancies are presented by sex, employment status, marital status, and occupation. These migration expectancies are regarded as a first approximation. It is suggested that a conditional probability model, such as a Markov chain model, may provide improved migration rates for a migration expectancy model.