A Bayesian Driver Agent Model for Autonomous Vehicles System Based on Knowledge-Aware and Real-Time Data

A key research area in autonomous driving is how to model the driver's decision-making behavior, due to the fact it is significant for a self-driving vehicles considering their traffic safety and efficiency. However, the uncertain characteristics of vehicle and pedestrian trajectories affect urban roads, which poses severe challenges to the cognitive understanding and decision-making of autonomous vehicle systems in terms of accuracy and robustness. To overcome the abovementioned problems, this paper proposes a Bayesian driver agent (BDA) model which is a vision-based autonomous vehicle system with learning and inference methods inspired by human driver's cognitive psychology. Different from the end-to-end learning method and traditional rule-based methods, our approach breaks the driving system up into a scene recognition module and a decision inference module. The perception module, which is based on a multi-task learning neural network (CNN), takes a driver's-view image as its input and predicts the traffic scene's feature values. The decision module based on dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) then makes an inferred decision using the traffic scene's feature values. To explore the validity of the Bayesian driver agent model, we performed experiments on a driving simulation platform. The BDA model can extract the scene feature values effectively and predict the probability distribution of the human driver's decision-making process accurately based on inference. We take the lane changing scenario as an example to verify the model, the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) correlation between the BDA model and human driver's decision process reached 0.984. This work suggests a research in scene perception and autonomous decision-making that may apply to autonomous vehicle system.