Guns’N Roses: Political assassination attempt and cryptocurrency markets

This paper examines how the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt on Donald Trump propagated through cryptocurrency markets. Using minute-by-minute data for the ten largest crypto-assets, we employ a BEKK-MGARCH framework to assess volatility dynamics and an event-study of cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to identify the transmission mechanism. We document a pronounced intensification of volatility spillovers following the shock, indicating financial contagion and heightened cross-asset risk transmission. CARs are uniformly positive across all assets, averaging approximately 15%, consistent with information-driven herd behavior rather than asset-specific fundamental revaluation. Narrative-driven tokens such as Dogecoin and Ripple exhibit the largest gains, while protocol-oriented assets such as Polkadot and Avalanche respond more moderately. Our findings show that positive political shocks synchronize investor beliefs, amplify speculative coordination, and tighten volatility interdependence in cryptocurrency markets. • Trump assassination attempt (July 2024) as exogenous shock to crypto markets. • BEKK-MGARCH reveals heightened volatility spillovers post-event. • Universal positive CARs ( 15%) signal herding and information cascades. • Narrative-driven tokens react more; protocol-oriented assets stay muted. • Political shocks tighten cross-asset dependence in cryptocurrency markets.