Prediction of driver intended path at intersections

The complexity of situations occurring at intersections is demanding on the cognitive abilities of drivers. Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) are intended to assist particularly in those situations. However, for adequate system reaction strategies it is essential to develop situation assessment. Especially the driver's intention has to be estimated. So, the criticality can be inferred and efficient intervention strategies can take action. In this paper, we present a prediction framework based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and analyze its performance using a large database of real driving data. Our focus is on the variation of the model parameters and the choice of the dataset for learning. The direction of travel while approaching a 4-way intersection is to be estimated. A solid prediction is accomplished with high prediction rates above 90% and mean prediction times up to 7 seconds before entering the intersection area.