Adaptation to Global Environmental Change ∗

Atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected to double by A.D. 2050, raising global temperatures 2 to 3°C. A model for climatic deviations is presented, based upon paleoclimatic experience 5,000 to 8,000 years ago, when midlatitude temperatures were 1.5 to 2.5°C higher. The economic prognosis includes a United States barely able to meet its own agricultural needs and a substantial overall reduction of world food supplies. The revolutionary implications for contemporary sociopolitical alignments suggest an urgent need for long-range planning and more, historically oriented research.