In U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 years, the prevalence of existing CVD was 9.6%, and 20.2% had an elevated (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of developing CVD based on the PREVENT equations.
Cross-Sectional (n=14,184)
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A substantial proportion of the U.S. adult population has an elevated 10-year or 30-year predicted risk of cardiovascular disease based on the PREVENT equations, highlighting a critical need for intensive preventive efforts.
BACKGROUND The American Heart Association PREVENT (Predicting Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events) equations were recently developed to estimate risk of total cardiovascular disease (CVD), which includes both atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) and heart failure (HF). Long-term risks of total CVD in the U.S. population are unknown. OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine the long-term risks of CVD in the U.S. POPULATION METHODS Using data on U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey between 2011 and 2020, we determined 10- and 30-year risks of total CVD, ASCVD, and HF based on the PREVENT equations. Age-standardized and survey-weighted risk prevalence was determined with further stratification according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity. RESULTS The study population included 14,184 participants aged 30 to 79 years, representing 160.6 million U.S. adults with and without CVD. The prevalence of existing CVD was 9.6%, including 26.8% among adults aged 65 to 79 years. Survey-weighted prevalence of having elevated (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of developing CVD was 20.2%, although only 10.7% were considered at risk for ASCVD and 12.7% at risk for HF. Prevalence of having elevated 10-year risk of developing CVD was 1.0% in adults aged 30 to 44 years, 18.3% in adults aged 45 to 64 years, and 66.3% in adults aged 65 to 79 years. Due to underlying risk factor profiles, men as well as Black and Hispanic adults had higher 10-year risks of total CVD, ASCVD, and HF. Mean 10-year risks of total CVD, ASCVD, and HF modestly increased over time. For 30-year risks, 66.7% of adults aged 30 to 59 years were without CVD but had elevated total CVD risk, including 89.7% of adults aged 45 to 59 years. Men and Black adults had higher 30-year risks of ASCVD and HF. CONCLUSIONS Three in 10 U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 years have existing CVD or an elevated 10-year predicted risk of CVD, including >90% of adults aged >65 years. Two-thirds of middle-aged adults are without CVD but have an elevated 30-year CVD risk. Men and Black and Hispanic adults are higher risk. These findings emphasize the need for intensive efforts to prevent CVD in the United States.
“The long-term perspective is important here because what we would like to do ideally is prevent cardiovascular disease and prevent development of risk factors for cardiovascular disease. So, either preventing the disease itself from manifesting or delaying it as long as possible. When you look at the US population, when you calculate their 30-year risk, we see that the vast majority of people will have high risks and that's really the time to act by controlling or managing these risk factors.”
Faridi et al. (Sun,) conducted a cross-sectional in Cardiovascular Disease (n=14,184). Cardiovascular risk factors was evaluated on Prevalence of elevated (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of developing CVD. In U.S. adults aged 30 to 79 years, the prevalence of existing CVD was 9.6%, and 20.2% had an elevated (≥7.5%) 10-year predicted risk of developing CVD based on the PREVENT equations.
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