From weather reliance to digital empowerment: the role of the digital economy in enhancing agricultural industry resilience

Introduction Traditional agriculture is highly dependent on climatic conditions, making its output particularly sensitive to climate variability. The uncertainties associated with climate change pose ongoing challenges to agricultural industry resilience (AIR). In this context, the development of the digital economy is facilitating a shift from climate-dependent production to digitally empowered agriculture. Methods This study empirically examines the impact of the digital economy on AIR using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces over the period 2011–2022. Results The results indicate that the digital economy significantly enhances AIR, with a pronounced nonlinear relationship: as the level of digital economy development increases, its marginal empowering effect gradually diminishes, consistent with the typical pattern of technology diffusion. Mechanism analysis reveals that the digital economy strengthens AIR through three main pathways: promoting agricultural technological innovation, accelerating digital transformation, and improving production efficiency. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the empowering effect of the digital economy is more pronounced in non-major grain-producing regions, areas with lower levels of agricultural modernization, and regions with higher degrees of population aging. This highlights the role of digital development in addressing structural weaknesses in traditional agriculture and alleviating resource constraints. Discussion This study provides empirical evidence on the complex nonlinear relationship between digital technologies and agricultural resilience, offering theoretical insights and practical guidance for policymakers to implement targeted digital strategies.