Optimizing Malawi's power generation pathway to 2063: Balancing cost, security, and emissions for universal electricity access

Global energy systems are rapidly transforming to meet decarbonization targets consistent with the 1. 5 °C goal, while Malawi aims to achieve universal (100%) energy access by 2060. This study employs a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model to design Malawi's least-cost power expansion pathways under multiple technology scenarios including hydro, solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, coal, and imports. Findings reveal a notable divergence between policy-aligned and economically optimal pathways. Although wind power appears cost-competitive in model simulations, its large-scale adoption is constrained by Malawi's limited technical expertise and maintenance capacity. Scenario S2, which excludes wind and aligns with current government plans, indicates a solar-dominated generation mix (66% by 2060), supported by coal (12%) and hydro (21%), achieving universal access but yielding the lowest net present value (NPV) of US18. 64 billion and high cumulative emissions (116 Mt CO 2). Conversely, Scenario S6, a fully domestic renewable system excluding both coal and imports, achieves the highest NPV (US25. 79 billion) with near-zero emissions (1. 71 Mt CO 2). By 2040, all scenarios achieve over 50% variable renewable energy (VRE) share, indicating the need to carefully address grid stability as part of system planning and design. Intermediate pathways incorporating imports (S5) or limited coal with carbon pricing (S4) confirm the economic and environmental disadvantages of coal dependence. The results demonstrate that Malawi can attain full energy access through a renewable-focused strategy while minimizing emissions and costs. The study provides a replicable framework for developing nations pursuing integrated, climate-aligned energy transitions.