Forensic Accounting Techniques and Procurement Fraud in Nigeria's Federal Ministries, Departments and Agencies

Procurement fraud remains a persistent challenge in Nigeria's ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs), undermining fiscal discipline and service delivery. This study examined the effect of forensic accounting techniques on procurement fraud in Nigerian federal MDAs. Specifically, it assessed the extent to which Benford's Law, data mining and analytics, and ratio analysis influence procurement fraud indicators. The study was anchored on the Fraud Triangle Theory and employed an ex post facto research design. A balanced panel dataset comprising 30 federal MDAs over the period 2015–2024 was analysed using descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, panel unit root tests, and panel least squares regression. The Hausman specification test favoured the Random Effects Model for hypothesis testing. Findings revealed that Benford's Law had a statistically significant negative relationship with procurement fraud (β = -2.798, p 0.05). The model explained approximately 68.78% of the variation in procurement fraud indicators. The study concluded that Benford's Law and data mining are robust forensic tools for combating procurement fraud, while ratio analysis alone is insufficient. It recommended the institutionalisation of Benford's Law in routine audits and increased investment in data mining infrastructure across federal MDAs to strengthen public procurement integrity