Floods in Somalia: a recurring disaster risk

Background Floods have become a recurring and intensifying disaster in Somalia, driven by erratic climate patterns, environmental degradation, and inadequate infrastructure. Despite their predictable seasonality, each rainy season brings catastrophic flooding that displaces hundreds of thousands, destroys livelihoods, and fuels disease outbreaks.Objective This Study examines the structural drivers of flood vulnerability in Somalia, analyses the health and humanitarian consequences of recurrent flooding, and proposes evidence-based policy recommendations for transitioning from reactive emergency response to anticipatory flood risk management.Methods This Study synthesizes recent empirical evidence, government reports, and humanitarian assessments on flood impacts in Somalia, with particular focus on the 2023–2024 El Niño-induced floods. The analysis draws on peer-reviewed literature, agency evaluations, and on-the-ground observations from affected regions including Hiran, Middle Shabelle, and Gedo.Results The 2023–2024 floods affected over 2.4 million people, displaced 1.2 million, destroyed 1.5 million hectares of farmland, and triggered outbreaks of cholera, acute watery diarrhea, and malaria. Nearly 70% of flood-affected households were internally displaced persons previously uprooted by conflict or drought. Structural vulnerabilities include decades of neglected river embankments, deforestation accelerating runoff, unplanned urbanization in floodplains, and early warning systems that fail to translate into local action.Conclusions Somalia cannot continue its reactive approach to flooding. Climate projections indicate more frequent and intense extreme rainfall events, making flooding a question of when rather than if. Urgent priorities include restoring river embankments, linking early warning systems to pre-arranged financing, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, progressively relocating settlements from floodplains, and elevating flooding to the same strategic priority as drought in national adaptation plans. Without systemic action, floods will continue to unravel decades of fragile development gains.