This study examines the short- and long-run effects of logistics and transport infrastructure on agricultural sector performance in Nigeria using annual time-series data for 1986–2023. Drawing on infrastructure-led development theory, agricultural value added (constant prices) is used as the measure of sectoral performance, while transport services and real GDP per capita serve as explanatory variables. After applying Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillips–Perron unit root tests, the study uses an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds-testing approach to examine cointegration and dynamic relationships. The results confirm a long-run equilibrium relationship between agricultural sector performance, transport services, and real GDP per capita. However, the long-run coefficients for transport services and real GDP per capita are not statistically significant. In the short run, transport services also show no statistically significant effect, indicating limited immediate responsiveness of agriculture to changes in transport conditions. The error correction term confirms convergence toward long-run equilibrium, although adjustment is very slow. Overall, the findings suggest that transport and logistics investments should be accompanied by complementary policies strengthening institutions, market integration, input access, and climate resilience.
Rojík et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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