Building food system resilience in Kenya's ASALs: agronomic and institutional determinants of maize variety selection by smallholders

Purpose This study examines the determinants of maize variety choice and its implications for household food security among smallholder farmers in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs). It assesses how financial capacity, institutional access and varietal preferences influence adoption of hybrid versus open-pollinated maize varieties (OPVs), and whether hybrid cultivation improves food security. Design/methodology/approach Data from 540 households across four ASAL counties were analyzed using a logit model with average marginal effects to identify adoption drivers. Inverse probability weighting (IPW) was applied to estimate the causal impact of hybrid adoption on food security. Findings Results indicate that maize variety choice is driven primarily by liquidity and institutional factors rather than basic household demographics. Households with savings are 5% more likely to adopt hybrid maize. Access to extension services and formal seed information channels particularly agro-dealers, research centers and demonstration trials substantially increases the likelihood of hybrid adoption, reflecting a segmented seed information system. In contrast, demographic characteristics and current production levels show limited explanatory power. Research limitations/implications The study uses cross-sectional data from Kenya's ASALs, limiting assessment of long-term adoption dynamics and causal effects. Future research should employ longitudinal data to better understand the long-term impacts of maize variety adoption on food security and resilience. Social implications Policies should address liquidity constraints and strengthen extension, financial access and seed distribution networks to promote equitable adoption and improved food security in climate-stressed regions. Originality/value By integrating adoption behavior and food security outcomes within a treatment-effect framework, this study provides evidence from climate-vulnerable ASAL systems where productivity and resilience remain critical policy priorities.