Understanding the Efficacy of Pronatalist Policies

This study examines whether pronatalist policies are effective in raising fertility through a comparative analysis of Latvia and South Korea between 2000 and 2020. Using policy documents, national vital statistics, and OECD family-benefits data, this research employs pattern recognition, descriptive trend analysis, and interrupted time series methodologies to investigate policy effectiveness. The findings reveal that Latvia experienced modest fertility gains following the implementation of comprehensive family policy packages, particularly those involving parental leave and childcare expansion. In contrast, South Korea showed a limited fertility response despite substantial financial investment in pronatalist measures. Results indicate that structural policies addressing work-family conflict tend to outperform one-off cash transfers in sustaining fertility increases. Cultural context and labour market structures appear to mediate policy effectiveness, with stronger responses observed in Latvia than in South Korea. These findings suggest that effective pronatalist strategies should prioritise institutional reforms that reduce the opportunity costs of childbearing rather than relying primarily on financial incentives.